2019: Are we facing a recession or economic slowdown?

According to the ABC News/Washington Post Poll (https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1207a3-Trump-and-the-Economy.pdf) on Trump and the Economy published on 10 September 2019, six out of ten Americans are expecting a recession in 2020. Afterall, the ongoing US-China trade war have posed great uncertainty to businesses and weighting down on global economy.

However, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) holds the responsibility in determining when a recession begins and ends.

A recession, as defined by NBER, is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.

In the recent projection by Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), it shows that the US economic growth is expected to dip from 2.9% in 2018 to 2.4% in 2019 and eventually, to 2% in 2020. This runs almost in parallel with the prediction of worldwide growth from 3% to 2.9% in 2018 and 2019 respectively.

OECD Interim Economic Outlook projections 2019
Source: http://www.oecd.org/newsroom/oecd-sees-rising-trade-tensions-and-policy-uncertainty-further-weakening-global-growth.htm

Going forward, we would continue to observe the softening of global growth and risks to the outlook remains gloomy especially with the escalating trade tensions. However, according to Federal Reserve Jerome Powell and a Deloitte survey of chief financial officers, it may seem that an economic slowdown is expected instead of a recession.

Original article: https://www.ai-cio.com/news/recession-forecasts-see-slowdown/